Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan claims victory in election seen as test of Russia's influence

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YEREVAN, Armenia (AP) — Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed victory Monday in a general election seen as a test of Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus country, as preliminary results showed his governing party in first with more than double the votes of the next contender.

Pashinyan was looking for a strong mandate for a new geopolitical course that includes distancing Armenia from Moscow and deepening cooperation with the West. “The European Union is our main partner in democratic reform implementation, and we will continue that path,” Pashinyan said as he cast his vote on Sunday.

European election observers said the election was divisive but “well-run," while noting concerns that Russia had sought to sway the outcome with economic pressure and suggesting that Pashinyan's incumbent government had sought to stifle the largely pro-Russian opposition.

Pashinyan's Civil Contract party came in first with 49.82% of the vote, according to the latest preliminary results on Monday.

His main opponent, Samvel Karapetyan, is a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and is under house arrest, accused of advocating for the government’s overthrow. Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia bloc was the runner-up with 23.28% of the vote, rejects that charge as politically motivated.

Armenian investigators said they also issued six arrest warrants for members of Strong Armenia the day before the election, accusing them of buying votes. The party seeks to develop close business ties with Moscow and has accused Pashinyan of attempting to start a war with the Kremlin.

While the Central Election Commission says it has counted ballots from all electoral precincts, full results are not expected until Sunday. This is to give parties time to lodge complaints about any perceived irregularities.

Richard Giragosian, who heads the Regional Studies Center think tank in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, said that despite concerns that Russia was trying to sway the election, the vote had been “genuinely free and fair” and “stands as a referendum on the future of the country.”

“Much of the Russian efforts at interference fell flat and were ineffective,” Giragosian told the AP on Monday.

Russia has warned Armenia it would suffer economic consequences if it continues moves toward the EU. Moscow controls a significant portion of Armenia’s energy and infrastructure, a point that has been driven home by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his meetings with Pashinyan.

Russia recently banned the import of a number of Armenian products, including, flowers, wine and fish. Moscow has cited violations of import rules, but the European Commission has called the measures “economic coercion.”

Putin and other Russian officials also have made thinly veiled threats comparing Armenia’s path to that already taken by Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.

Armenia’s National Assembly must consist of at least 101 members elected for five-year terms. Parties must win at least 4% of the vote to enter, while blocs made up of three or more parties must hit 8%.

The Hayastan (Armenia) bloc led by former President Robert Kocharyan is also set to take seats, receiving 9.93% of the vote. The Prosperous or Blossoming Armenia party, led by pro-Russia businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, has hovered around the 4% threshold.

Turnout stood at 58.94%, according to the latest announcement by the election commission.

Preliminary results from the election commission suggested the governing party has won 61 seats in the National Assembly.

According to Giragosian, the analyst, this will allow Pashinyan's party to rule on its own and pass most laws independently, but not to secure constitutional amendments without a referendum.

Opposition parties have strongly criticized the government for attempting to normalize relations with neighboring Azerbaijan. Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialed a document on moving toward a peace deal at the White House alongside U.S. President Donald Trump in August.

Armenia and Azerbaijan were locked in a decades-long conflict over Karabakh, a breakaway region that had been controlled for decades by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Yerevan. Azerbaijan took control of the entire Karabakh region during a rapid offensive in 2023.

Pashinyan announced on Monday that Armenia intends to move toward “institutionalizing” a peace deal, and ratifying an agreement with the White House that would create a major transit corridor through Armenian territory to be named after Trump.

“This is a truly transformative project, as Armenia is becoming a crossroads of the world,” Pashinyan said.

Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the European Parliament said in a joint statement that the election had offered voters genuine alternatives “in a well-run process.”

The observers noted concerns about pressure from Russia, while also noting that the campaign domestically was “highly confrontational” and marked by allegations of electoral violations that led to many criminal cases against opposition candidates, raising a perception of “selective justice."

"This, along with pressure on public sector employees to attend ruling party events, and recently introduced social and economic measures, raised concerns about the equality of opportunity to campaign,” the statement said.

Top officials of the EU, which is preparing an economic support package for Armenia, congratulated Pashinyan following the tightly contested race.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on social media that the EU deeply values the partnership with Armenia as it draws “ever closer to Europe.”

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Armenia's elections were held “amid unprecedented pressure on the opposition and interference from the West, primarily the EU.”

The ministry's spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, did not give examples of such interference, but said the elections "demonstrated that Armenian society is extremely polarized.” She added that Moscow's approach to future relations will “take into account actual steps taken by the Armenian leadership."

Giragosian said that Russia is not necessarily surprised at the election outcome and that its lack of direct support for the Armenian opposition indicates that it is open to continue working with the Pashinyan government while also increasing pressure on it.

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AP writers Sam McNeil in Brussels and Menelaos Hadjicostis in Nicosia, Cyprus contributed.

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An earlier version of this story wrongly stated that according to an earlier announcement by Armenia's election commission, turnout in the general election on Sunday stood at 97%. The correct figure at that time was 59.97%.